“The stock has declined by 72% since 2016 and is still below the level required by international treaties and UK domestic law. Scientists are advising that catches be reduced by 11% and all the mackerel fishing countries should commit to doing this. The fact the stock has avoided a further decline is good, but it highlights the uncomfortable reality that governments came dangerously close to repeating the mistakes that have driven other fish stocks into collapse.”

“The question now is whether governments will finally listen to the science or continue gambling with one of the most important fisheries in the Northeast Atlantic.” Jonny Hughes, Blue Marine’s Fisheries Policy Lead.

The mackerel stock has seen a small increase in its population despite years of excessive catches, raising questions about how close managers came to collapsing the largest and most profitable fishery in the Northeast Atlantic. Scientists are advising that catches be reduced by 11%.

Northeast Atlantic mackerel has avoided receiving a zero-catch recommendation from scientists, according to new advice published today by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). ICES said: Due to an improved recruitment in 2026 (2024 year class), higher mean weights-at-age in the stock, SSB 2026 is estimated to be above Blim. This allows for a higher advised fishing pressure than last year (0.15 for the 2026 advice compared to 0.07 for the 2025 advice), resulting in an increase in advice by 102%.

This year’s advice equates to an 11% decrease in catches.

The advice highlights a troubling reality: one of Europe’s most valuable fisheries has come perilously close to joining a growing list of fish stocks facing collapse after years of political decisions that repeatedly ignored scientific recommendations.

Although the stock has been spared a zero-catch recommendation, ICES still advise that catches need to be reduced.

Earlier this year, Waitrose suspended the sourcing and sale of Northeast Atlantic mackerel because of concerns over chronic overfishing and the failure of governments to bring catches back into line with scientific advice. The retailer warned that continued inaction threatened the long-term future of the fishery and undermined consumer confidence in seafood sustainability.

The latest advice serves as a warning that the stock was saved by biological resilience, not responsible management.